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Sometime around 1980, in the United States as well as in a range of other high-income countries, a new economic geography began to emerge. Under this new pattern, rewards have been lavished upon highly educated workers living in a group of increasingly large, prosperous cities. At the same time, gaps in welfare and opportunity separating these ‘superstar’ cities from the rest of the urban system have grown. This has created the impression of a deep polarization between winners and ‘left behind’ places.

Despite growing attention from academic researchers, policymakers, and practitioners, the reality of 21st century urbanization remains insufficiently well understood. In this talk, Dr. Tom Kemeny will outline the problem across multiple dimensions, including incomes, social mobility, wealth, and housing. He argues for an explanation centered on two major forces: epochal technological innovation, and fundamental changes in land supply. This account contrasts with a dominant, supply-side narrative about location and equality, in which changes in zoning rules can enable prosperity for all. Instead, the view he will articulate points to a future of persistent polarization in the American system.