Скачать или смотреть The Italian Job - The political consequences of the referendum

The American Presidential election has received more news coverage, perhaps because of the outsize personalities of the candidates, but the December 4th Italian referendum on constitutional reform is by far the more important. If it fails the ramifications for the economic and political future of Europe and the globe could be greater, more unpredictable and more durable than anything that might be wrought by the incoming Trump administration.  

The U.S. election took place within the accepted and unchallenged structure of the American constitutional system. The Italian referendum has the potential to overthrow large parts of the post-war political and economic settlement of the continent. 

There are of course many ifs on the way to revolution. If the referendum fails, if Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi resigns, if the Five Star Movement wins the subsequent election in 2017 or 2018 and if the party founded by former comedian Beppe Grillio is able to form a government and follow through on its threat to leave the euro and put Italian membership in the EU to a referendum. The referendum seems set to fail, polling is running between 50 and 60 percent against passage but beyond that all is uncertain.   

The Italian and European political establishments will fight tooth and nail to preserve the status quo. An Italian departure from the euro would doom the united currency and an EU without Italy is a blow the political structure of the organization is unlikely to survive. At the moment both are favored by the Italian electorate.

What are the chances that the Italians, following the British and Americans are willing to turn their backs on the politics that have defined the last two generations?

Join us for a tour d'horizon of Italian politics and Italy's place in Europe.