Statistical Rethinking (2nd Ed), Solutions to Problems 11H3 | A Poisson Model

11H3:
The data contained in data(salamanders) are counts of salamanders (Plethodon elongatus) from 47 different 49-m 2 plots in northern California. The column SALAMAN is the count in each plot, and the columns PCTCOVER and FORESTAGE are percent of ground cover and age of trees in the plot, respectively. You will model SALAMAN as a Poisson variable.

(a) Model the relationship between density and percent cover, using a log-link (same as the example in the book and lecture). Use weakly informative priors of your choosing. Check the quadratic approximation again, by comparing quap to ulam. Then plot the expected counts and their 89% interval against percent cover. In which ways does the model do a good job? A bad job?

(b) Can you improve the model by using the other predictor, FORESTAGE? Try any models you think useful. Can you explain why FORESTAGE helps or does not help with prediction?

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