Скачать или смотреть IDP | Covid-19: a phased lift of control and other exit strategies

IDP | Covid-19: a phased lift of control and other exit strategies - Speakers - Luc Coffeng and Sake de Vlas - (Explicit content)

Date: 2nd Nov 2020 - 13:00 to 13:45
Venue: INI Seminar Room 1
Title: Covid-19: a phased lift of control and other exit strategies - Speakers - Luc Coffeng and Sake de Vlas - (Explicit content)
Event: (IDP) Infectious Dynamics of Pandemics: Mathematical and statistical challenges in understanding the dynamics of infectious disease pandemics
Abstract: InThe Netherlands, the first wave of SARS-Cov-2 was controlled by whatpoliticians like to call an “intelligent lockdown”, whereas the current wave isbeing addressed by a “semi-lockdown”. In this seminar, we’ll highlight anddissect the main components of the Dutch control strategy and will explore andcompare the potential impact of some of these components using anindividual-based model of COVID-19 transmission that included geographicalstratification, individual heterogeneity in exposure and contributiontransmission, and assortative mixing. In addition, we’ll explore the expectedcourse and outcome of several controversial hypothetical strategies aimed atgenerating herd immunity though natural infection by a controlled release ofthe epidemic. Last, we’ll draw some parallels between said controversialstrategies and what is currently happening in practice in The Netherlands.

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