Скачать или смотреть Why election surveys are missing that AAP is winning Delhi elections

Yogendra Yadav is an AAP leader and a psephologist.

When he wears his psephologist's hat, the nation listens and few doubt his integrity and ability to keep his psephology clear from his politics.

Now he is staking his stellar credibility in asserting that AAP is winning the Delhi 2013 elections. He offers a scientific explanation as to why election surveys are missing this - and it is not just the about them being fixed -- though he doesn't doubt that a few fall into that category too.

He is pointing to four specific technical errors that most 'honest' surveys are making. To begin with many surveys depend on non - random selection of samples that results in surveyors interviewing 'people like us'. This, in a place like Delhi gives the BJP a false boost, as this section in Delhi often votes BJP. The second error arises from having an open ballot, which results in an error from people not wanting to risk an open declaration of their own choices. In Delhi, this errors creates a survey bias in favour of the ruling Congress.

The third error arises from surveys using past voting patterns to correct the results of the present survey. Again an error arises in this, from people either not remembering or not wishing to declare correctly their past voting patterns. This bias, in Delhi, gives the BJP an advantage. Finally surveys use past election results while converting voting patterns into seat estimates. This gives first time parties like AAP an obvious disadvantage as they did not fight the previous elections.

Yogendra asserts that the surveys commissioned by AAP and carried out by independent third parties have used strict randomization and secret ballots, making them less prone to inaccuracy. He further asserts that these surveys clearly show that Aam Aadmi Party is getting a clear majority in Delhi.

He also offers those who don't want to go into the nitty-gritty of survey mechanisms - Walk out and talk to ten people you don't know.. that should tell you who is winning Delhi in December 2013.