Скачать или смотреть Oil Market Tug-of-War: Short-Term Pressure vs Long-Term Bullish Outlook

Eric Nuttall, September 4, 2025 - Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, returns from summer break to dissect the growing debate between oil market bulls and bears. With OPEC+ compliance questions, surging non-OPEC supply, and Chinese stockpiling all driving volatility, Eric explains why short-term caution is warranted but why the medium-term outlook remains firmly bullish.

Key Topics Covered:
• OPEC+ Export Dynamics – Saudi exports expected to rise in September after summer burn-offs masked true supply levels.
• Inventory Debate – Global builds concentrated in China’s SPR, leaving OECD stocks still near multi-year lows.
• New Supply Surge – Guyana, Brazil, and Canada hitting record output, adding barrels just as demand faces seasonal shifts.
• US Shale Plateau – Hedging reduces downside sensitivity; production stuck in low-60s, signaling twilight of shale growth.
• Spare Capacity Normalizing – OPEC’s thin 2.1m bpd buffer could disappear if deals are fully unwound, a medium-term bullish setup.
• Demand Growth Stronger for Longer – Global oil demand growth likely underestimated, supporting structural tightness post-2026.
• Canadian Advantage – Canada’s world-class reserves and top-tier plays poised to attract capital as US shale fades.
• Natural Gas Opportunity – Despite a weak summer, strip pricing and LNG growth point to compelling valuations and potential upside.

While short-term builds may pressure crude prices, Eric highlights why Canadian oil equities and natural gas remain attractive opportunities for patient investors.

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