This Tropical Storm Just Got Worse, A Big Hurricane Maybe Coming...

The area of disturbed weather located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico does not possess a well-defined circulation yet. Scatterometer and aircraft data indicate that it consists of an elongated trough of low pressure oriented north-northwest to south-southeast. However, there is a large area of 35-45 kt winds located southwest of the trough axis. These tropical storm-force winds are also confirmed by an ongoing Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission, which found 975 mb flight-level winds up to 56 kt, with SFMR winds also quite high in the same vicinity. Some of these high winds are likely enhanced in part due to a barrier jet offshore of the Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico. Because the system
is expected to become a tropical storm over the next day or so, and tropical storm-force winds are forecast to be near the coast of Mexico within 48 hours, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six. The initial intensity is set to 45 kt for this advisory based on a blend of scatterometer and aircraft data.

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https://isotherm.rsmas.miami.edu/heat...
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