Скачать или смотреть A complexity approach to understanding urban resilience - Shade Shutters

Interdependence networks: A complexity approach to understanding urban resilience
Presented by Shade Shutters

After earning a bachelor’s in finance, Shade Shutters worked several years in the corporate sector before entering a PhD program in theoretical ecology. He then went on to complete a postdoc in applied economics at the University of Vigo, Spain, and a second postdoc in complexity science at Arizona State University. Today, Shutters is a complex systems scientist fusing data science, evolutionary theory, and a complex systems framework to study the world's most intractable problems - problems that typically stem from the conflict between individual desires and social goals, exhibit nonlinear or unpredictable responses to policy intervention, and are exacerbated by the increasing connectivity that comes with globalization and technological innovation. The complex systems he studies most are cities - analyzing their socio-economic evolution and internal connectedness to understand the drivers of urban resilience and social (in)stability. In this context, Shutters works on the development of data-driven models that help understand and predict the trajectory of urban development and economic transitions.

This talk will explore the ambiguous notion of “connectedness,” which, in the Panarchy framework, is one of the three dimensions through which complex systems advance through time. This dimension is intimately linked with another dimension of complex systems – resilience. Thus, by measuring connectedness, we can better understand and predict the resilience of complex systems. But how does one measure or even conceptualize the connectedness of a complex system? Our approach is to use network theory, coupled with co-occurrence models from ecology, to elucidate and quantify the cryptic economic structures within cities. Taking that structure as a network, we then develop a system-level measure of connectedness, which we find is positively correlated with both vulnerability and productivity of a city. This network approach can further be used to develop a typology of cities based on their responses to shocks. I end with potential implications both for other disciplines and for policymakers.