Скачать или смотреть New CO2 Emission rules come into effect in the European Union by 2025

Our European BEV market forecast for 2024 We outlined our global BEV outlook in our recent EV sales tracker report (EV sales tracker Oct 23 & key highlights of the FY24 outlook). Our forecast for Europe: Europe: +23% y/y growth, +470k unit sales, 19% BEV pass. car penetration rate We consider Europe as a region that is at risk to disappoint in 2024. The EU car association expects 20% BEV penetration ratio for PCs in EU28 countries, increasing from 16% in 2023e. We forecast just 19% BEV PC penetration ratio for 2024, but this still means we expect EU BEV sales to increase by c20% (=470k units). Extrapolating the October 23 run-rate of 180k units, the market would be flat y/y. Nevertheless, we forecast +22% y/y sales increase, which is largely coming from legacy OEMs new model launches (i.e. STLA) and rising share of Chinese imports. We expect c60% of the volume growth to come from new model launches for the market in total. Despite Germany (=25% of EU BEV market) suffering from a cut back of subsidies (by €1,500 per vehicle), we expect the new models and lower BEV prices to entice more buyers. Last but not least, keep the CO2 emission regulation in Europe in mind, which will become again stricter as of FY25. Some OEMs just cannot afford a slowdown of BEV sales growth.