Скачать или смотреть The Rate-Cut Trap: Why One Cool Shelter Print Doesn’t Clear the Fed

Recession risk, Fed rate cuts, S&P 500 valuations, and Gold all hinge on one question: is the “last mile” of inflation stuck in services ex housing?
CPI morning can whip Treasury yields in seconds—but the Fed targets PCE, and the CPI vs PCE disconnect is where the market gets blindsided.

This episode breaks down the “last mile” inflation problem and why the most market-moving CPI print isn’t the inflation gauge the Federal Reserve officially targets. We map how goods disinflation did the easy work, while services inflation—especially services excluding housing (“supercore”)—can stay stubborn due to categories that don’t behave like a simple wage spiral (think insurance and medical-related components). Then we connect the plumbing from sticky services prints to Treasury yields (2Y/10Y), credit spreads, the dollar, and consumer-sensitive equities. Finally, you’ll get a practical dashboard of signals you can track yourself—straight from primary sources.

WHAT YOU WILL LEARN
Why CPI moves markets fast—but core PCE is the Fed’s target, and the gap matters for rate-cut expectations
How “supercore” (services ex housing) transmits into the 2-year Treasury yield, the curve, and financial conditions
What happens to credit spreads and refinancing risk when “higher for longer” stops being a slogan
🇺🇸 How policy divergence can support the US dollar and feed back into global conditions
The 5 signals to watch (PCE momentum, CPI services less shelter, ECI, quits, and 2Y + HY spreads) to judge if pressure is easing or building

DATA SOURCES & CITATIONS
Data and methodology referenced in this video sourced from:
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA): Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, Income & Outlays
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): CPI Detailed Tables (including services & shelter), CPI methodology notes, Employment Cost Index (ECI), Employment Situation (AHE), JOLTS (Quits Rate), Productivity & Costs
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED): Treasury yields (2Y/10Y), core PCE series, ICE BofA High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread (HYOAS)
Federal Reserve: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS)
Atlanta Fed: Wage Growth Tracker (switchers vs stayers)
Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS)
Dallas Fed: Trimmed Mean PCE (for an alternative “noise-filtered” inflation read)
U.S. Department of the Treasury: Auction results (bid-to-cover, tails, pricing behavior)

CHAPTER OUTLINE (Suggested)
1. CPI vs PCE: The inflation print that moves markets vs the gauge the Fed targets
2. The “easy disinflation” phase: why goods cooled faster than services
3. The shelter mirage: how CPI housing lags create optical illusions
4. Supercore explained: services ex housing and the real last-mile risk
5. The “weird” pocket: insurance and medical components driving sticky services
6. Market transmission: Treasuries → mortgages → equities → credit spreads → USD
7. The 5-signal dashboard: what to monitor for cuts, yields, and risk conditions

DISCLAIMER
This content is for educational and informational purposes only and is not financial, investment, or tax advice. Nothing in this video is a recommendation to buy or sell any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Markets involve risk, including loss of principal—do your own research and consider speaking with a qualified professional.

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