Скачать или смотреть $602 BILLION IN ONE WEEK: The US Debt "Death Cycle" & Why Yields Are Exploding

The U.S. Treasury just issued a staggering $602 billion in debt in a single week, pushing the total national debt to $38.4 trillion. But here is the real shock: despite the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut, bond yields are exploding. We analyze why the market is defying the Fed, the hidden "Double Interest" trap where maturing debt is being replaced at twice the cost, and the Federal Reserve's quiet pivot to "Reserve Management Purchases." Is the "debt death cycle" finally here?

The Data Dividend: US Treasury Auctions — Debt and Yields Surge
The bond market is currently sending a clear signal: the massive supply of U.S. debt is now more important than Federal Reserve policy. In this analysis, we break down the mechanics of the $602 billion weekly auction spree and the structural shift in how the government is attempting to keep the lights on.

In this critical analysis, we cover:

The $602 Billion Spree: Detailing the unprecedented issuance in the second week of December 2025. To fund a $38.4 trillion national debt, the Treasury was forced to sell over half a trillion dollars in securities in just five days, primarily through T-bills.

The Yield Paradox: Analyzing why the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields rebounded to multi-month highs (4.20% and 4.86% respectively) immediately after a Fed rate cut. This "rebellion" in the long end of the curve suggests that investors are more concerned with inflation and debt supply than with the Fed’s short-term guidance.

The Refinancing Trap: We expose the "Death Cycle" math. The Treasury is currently retiring older, maturing notes that carried interest rates of roughly 2% and replacing them with new debt at nearly double the interest cost. This transition is causing interest service to balloon, consuming an ever-larger portion of federal revenue.

Reserve Management vs. QE: Explaining the Federal Reserve’s technical shift to "Reserve Management Purchases" (RMPs). While critics claim this is a return to Quantitative Easing (QE), we detail why the Fed is specifically targeting T-bills to stabilize the repo market and maintain ample reserves, reverting to a pre-2009 management style.

Market Sentiment: Reviewing the growing alarm among institutional investors who fear a liquidity crunch if the Treasury cannot find enough buyers for its relentless supply of new paper without significantly higher yields.

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