Is the Bull Market over? Valuation framework for

Join me in this insightful session about #Bitcoin #cryptocurrency and #digitalassets #valuation with special guest Jupiter Zheng, HashKey Capital.

We explore the methodologies used in valuing digital assets, debunk common skepticisms such as those from Warren Buffet, and discuss the intriguing predictions from industry leaders like Cathie Wood. Learn about the #NVT, #MVRV, and #stock-to-flow models used to evaluate Bitcoin and discover how Ethereum and other Layer 1 solutions are assessed. We also look at the current market trends and what the future holds for crypto assets.

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00:00: Introduction, skepticism surrounding Bitcoin and crypto’s long-term value

01:35: “Digital Asset Valuation Framework” book overview
Published April 2024
Fusion of existing crypto valuation methods with traditional beta models
Categories of digital assets and corresponding valuation methods

3:59: Bitcoin valuation framework, key principles and metrics

7:52: Zoom in on the following methods
NVT
MVRV and its relevance to predicting the crypto market cycle
Stock-to-flow
Evolving valuation methods as Bitcoin is undergoing changes

14:16: How does Cathie Wood project $1M Bitcoin price by 2030
5% allocation of global investable assets
Impact of BTC spot ETF
parallels of BTC ETF and price and Gold ETF and price
Key milestones for Bitcoin to cement its status as “digital gold”

18:12: Ethereum and smart contract Layer 1 valuation
DCF
quantify network security and incorporate it into valuation models
commonalities and differences between Ethereum and its competitors, e.g. Solana (Ethereum killers) to be considered when calculating DCF

23:09: Data’s reliability and availability for building valuation models
Glassnode/Kaiko/Coin Metrics/Nansen/CryptoQuant

25:29: Warrant Buffett’s mental framework when evaluating stocks and assets
his skepticism about gold’s value
Different investors' perspectives on the value of cash-flow-generating and non-cash-flow-generating investment assets
Bitcoin as an alternative financial system

29:30: Current cycle - where are we now and outlook
what MVRV tells us
Industry’s consensus about Bitcoin’s price in this cycle
BTC spot ETF’s impact on this cycle
why ETH is underperforming, how about the altcoins
market sentiment and outlook

32:38: Closing

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This discussion session is for educational and informational purposes only, not investment or financial advice, and the speakers' views are their own.