Скачать или смотреть 20% of the World’s Oil at Risk — Why China Now Holds the Leverage

The Strait of Hormuz handles nearly 20% of the world’s oil and around 20% of global LNG exports. After U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, vessels began receiving warnings that the Strait was closed. Tanker traffic has dropped sharply, insurers are suspending coverage, and war-risk premiums are surging.
If even part of Hormuz is disrupted, more than 20 million barrels of oil per day are at risk. JP Morgan has warned that a worst-case scenario could send oil prices to $120–$130 per barrel — pushing inflation higher and rattling global markets.
But this crisis is not only about oil.
Over 90% of crude flowing through Hormuz heads to Asia. China, India, Japan, and South Korea account for nearly three-quarters of those imports. China is also the primary buyer of Iran’s sanctioned oil exports.
So who really holds leverage if Hormuz destabilizes?
In this Deep Dive, we break down:
• How the Strait of Hormuz can be effectively “closed” without a naval blockade
• Why insurance markets — not missiles — may determine shipping flows
• How oil could surge to $130
• What this means for U.S. inflation and the Federal Reserve
• Why Asia absorbs the largest shock
• And why China may now be the central geopolitical actor in this crisis
This is not just a regional conflict. It is a systemic energy shock with global consequences.

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#OilPrices
#China
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#Geopolitics
#EnergyCrisis
#Inflation
#GlobalPower

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Najma tweets @MinhasNajma

Najma Minhas is Managing Editor, Global Village Space. She has worked with National Economic Research Associates (NERA) in New York, Lehman Brothers in London and Standard Chartered Bank in Pakistan. Before launching GVS, she worked as a consultant with World Bank, and USAID. Najma studied Economics at London School of Economics and International Relations at Columbia University, NewYork. She tweets at @MinhasNajma.
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