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👉Where Are Home Prices & Inventory Going in 2024?

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🏡✨👉Where Are Home Prices & Inventory Going in 2024?

Let’s talk about housing inventory, what to expect and what caveats to prepare for. While we hope for more inventory, the data suggests that we should plan for it to remain tight. If you've been following my updates, you know that housing inventory has been at historic lows and overall sales volume has been incredibly low as well. And There just simply isn't enough new supply in the pipeline to fill the estimated 3-5M unit housing deficit in the US, and homes take a while to permit and build. So its not quick to turn around new projects. And many sellers aren't willing to sell in large enough numbers to make much of a difference. Now that presents opportunity for sellers who need or want to sell, as the supply shortage is keeping prices stable and increasing. The data shows that rates need to get closer to 5% in order to unlock the golden handcuffs that are keeping sellers locked in their current homes and low mortgage rates. Believe it or not Around 90% of homeowners [with a mortgage] have a rate under 6%, and 78% are under 5%. No wonder inventory is locked up! But don’t worry if you’re working with me to buy or sell, I thrive in challenging situations and I am happy to help you create a winning strategy and be competitive!

Are home prices going up or down in 2024

I hear a lot of people say they are waiting for prices to come down. And there's is no shortage of clickbait out there suggesting a crash. As much as the investor side of me would love to see some cheap deals and crack this inventory gridlock for my clients, its just not what the data shows. Expect prices to continue upward, and seasonal competition to drive them even higher for those highly desired homes. I anticipate appreciation to be moderate this year at a more normal level of around 3-5%. Keep in mind that's a lot lower than the average over the last decade of roughly 8% per year in both Bellingham and Seattle. Believe it or not, Bellingham has actually outpaced Seattle by about 0.8% per year. Now this anticipated gain in value could fluctuate depending on what shakes out over the next 12-24 months, but the data shows that we shouldn’t expect appreciation to be particularly high nor low—hey in this case “normal” is good enough.

Now Some Sellers may be tempted to wait until later in the year when rates may start to come down in order to capitalize on greater demand, and that is certainly one of the strategies to consider for some sellers, but that can be a fools game. Capitalizing now on the lowest inventory could potentially yield greater net proceeds, than waiting for something to happen later—which may or may not happen. For example lets say the Fed does a ¼ point reduction in early summer, we have to remember that the market most likely prices that in ahead of time, so it may not move the needle significantly in terms of lower mortgage rates and a bump in demand. For example, lets say a seller waited and rates don't come down much before the fall, and they are then forced to list their home as seasonal demand falls off. They run the risk that they actually get less for their home and it takes longer to sell. Now keep in mind that we have strategies that ensure we will still get the home sold for market value, it may just be a time cost for the seller. So the point is that We always have to consider the risk/reward of any given strategy. Which is why we have strategy sessions well in advance and create a plan that works for you and considers all options and potential outcomes.


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