美联储彻底转向, 萨姆规则拉响经济衰退警报! J.P. Morgan 预测2024年经济衰退可能性上升到35%! 利率下降周期怎么做?【艾财说119】

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经历了8月初股市暴跌之后，又迎来了大幅度反弹，真的跟过山车一样。再加上美联储主席鲍威尔在Jackson Hole 经济研讨会上的历史性政策转向讲话，大家都认为利率将会马上下降，好日子终于要来了。但是降息，会不会是因为我们已经进入了经济衰退，推出的补救措施呢？成功预测过去几十年美国所经历的全部8次经济衰退的硬指标“萨姆规则”已经被触发，说明很可能经济衰退在2个月前就已经开始了。JP Morgan 也站出来公开表示，2024年经济衰退的风险已经上升到35%。问题是现在还有3个多月2024年就要结束了。那么“萨姆规则”到底是如何预测经济衰退的，鲍威尔的讲话中包含了什么重要信号，一旦开始降息，市场到底会发生什么，我们投资者应该如何应对呢？

00:00 美联储彻底转向, 萨姆规则拉响经济衰退警报!
03:18 萨姆规则 (Sahm Rule)
05:30 升级版萨姆规则
06:33 J.P Morgan 的衰退预测
09:16 市场前景

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