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⚠️⚠️⚠️#Crash #Shiller #Stimulus ⚠️⚠️⚠️

In this video I’m going to break down a Robert Shiller Piece about what’s going on in the markets - Robert Shiller is a famous Yale Economists who’s written books like Irrational Exuberance - a phrase popularized by Alan Greenspan the former chairman of the federal reserve - along with at least 6 other incredibly powerful books. Basically, this guy is like an economic genius. Anand he just gave us a very detailed look into what he’s paying attention to in the market. Robert Schiller says that right now stocks are trading at very high levels and even though a crash may not occur, uncertainty levels are very high. He recently wrote an Opinion piece in the New York Times - which I know many don’t like the New yOrk times but ignore the source, Robert wrote this article. Robert Schiller wrote that he created an index that randomly surveys high-income individual investors AND institution investors in the United States and he tracks investor moods monthly. The first index he talks about is the Shiller Crash Index. It’s been a while since I’ve studied this index and it’s a bit tricky to understand. Before i show it to you, let me tell you what you’re looking for. A LOW number is BAD. A high number is GOOD. It’s kind of the opposite of what you’d think. Here’s why: the index takes a
◦ 6-month average of investors who think the likelihood of a crash is UNDER 10%. So a LOW number means ONLY THAT percentage think the chance of a crash is under 10%. Everyone else think’s it’s higher. Another indicator he looks at is something called his Valuation Confidence Index. For many of you following me during this pandemic, you know i’ve really shied away from buying individual stocks heavily since about august, i pulled back in september and paid off some margin, and now I’m just trickling into a broader portfolio. That’s in part because I’ve felt that valuations are definitely lofty. Shiller says that his valuation index asks people whether the market is Too Low, Too High, About Right, or Don’t Know. And this index tells us the percentage of people who think the market is NOT overpriced. So basically, higher number means more people think it’s a fair time to buy. So this means we’re at a weird time where stock valuations are high and confidence is low. Both of these aren’t great - it’s really a sign that people are worried. Now this can be because of the election, but remember at least the crash index is averaged over 6 months, so people are trending less confident. That’s not good because it can lead to more panic selling quickly. Robert Shiller also brings up the Shiller PE ratio. The problem with this chart is 2 fold: 1) earnings at traditional companies got destroyed because of the pandemic. The companies winning right now are tech companies, who generally sacrifice earnings for reinvestment. Shiller ends up saying that we’re at a crossroads. Right now, he thinks investing in the market is an adventure - but this adventure is vulnerable and shiller recommends remaining cautious. This is what Howard Marks believes as well in a video that i broke down last week.

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