Скачать или смотреть How has quantitative easing has influenced the shape of the yield curve and what is the forecast?

How has quantitative easing has influenced the shape of the yield curve and what is the forecast?

COVID19PandemicRecessionDepressionFedFederal ReserveCrisisUnemploymentYield curve

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Описание к видео How has quantitative easing has influenced the shape of the yield curve and what is the forecast?

-Yield curve (10-yr yield minus 3-mo yield) has inverted before the last seven recessions. My dissertation at the University of Chicago discovered this. Yield curve inverted June 30, 2019 and I forecasted a recession for 2020.

-We will never know if a recession would have occurred in the counterfactual of no COVID-19, however, in 2019, over 50% of US CFOs believed a recession would start in 2020

-The yield curve is upward sloping today signaling an end to recession. QE could mess up the signal but we have had QE before. However, a liquidity trap could even do more damage

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