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8.30pm Monday: Alfred 107.3 FM update on storm rainfall for Shaftesbury and flooding
A yellow Met Office rain warning is in force for Shaftesbury and surrounding villages until ten o’clock on Tuesday morning. South of Fontmell Magna and west of Marnhull, that warning escalates to amber, with much heavier rain expected.
Alfred’s weather contributor Ash Jury said conditions overnight could lead to flooding, particularly as the ground is already saturated. He warned that some existing amber flood warnings may be upgraded. ‘I fully expect that some of the amber warnings for flooding will go red again,’ he said.
Ash said the heaviest rainfall is likely during the early hours. ‘Between one o’clock and four or five o’clock tomorrow morning, quite widely we can expect forty to fifty millimetres of rain overnight. (3 inches) Locally, we could see sixty to eighty millimetres over higher ground, which will include Shaftesbury.’
He said the volume and persistence of the rain are the main concerns. ‘On saturated ground, the rainfall is just going to have nowhere to go. I fully expect flooding to be an issue.’
Ash expects the rain to clear by around nine on Tuesday morning, but said showers are likely later in the day, adding further pressure to already waterlogged ground. ‘I don’t think they’ll be overly heavy, but there may be quite a lot of them, and that’s not going to help the situation,’ he said.
Looking further ahead, Ash said there is uncertainty later in the week, with more rainfall possible. He ruled out snow locally, explaining that the jet stream is continuing to direct storms across the south-west. ‘The jet stream is throwing these systems at us one after another, and I’m not seeing much movement in it at the moment,’ he said.
While colder air could bring snow to parts of Scotland and northern England, Ash said conditions in the south-west are expected to remain milder. He added that temperatures may cool slightly towards the end of the week, but stressed that forecast models remain uncertain.
With further rain possible at the weekend, already saturated ground across the Shaftesbury area may face additional strain.
🔴 Red flood warning
A red flood warning remains in place for the Iwerne Valley. Groundwater levels in Iwerne Minster are high. At 8 pm this evening, Monday, the monitoring station at Iwerne Hill Farm was reading 115 metres 💧
Property flooding is possible at this level. Anything above 114 metres brings a risk. The red warning remains in place and action is required, as flooding is possible.
🔴 Red flood warning reinstated
The red flood warning for the Middle Stour, from Hammoon down to Sturminster Marshall, has also been reinstated. At 8 pm, the Stour was at 2.58 metres 💧 Levels have fallen slightly.
Properties are at risk of flooding at 2.9 metres, but with heavy rain forecast overnight, further issues could emerge.
🟠 Groundwater flood risk
There is also an amber warning for a risk of groundwater flooding in the Ebble Valley, taking in Berwick St John, Ebbesbourne Wake, Bowerchalke, and locations further down the river valley. At Homington, the groundwater level was 73 metres 💧 with flooding possible once it rises above 75 metres.
That reading came through at 7.30 pm this evening.
🟠 Cranborne Chase
Elsewhere across the Cranborne Chase, there is an amber advisory for groundwater flooding.
🟠 River Ebble and tributaries
An amber advisory to take action for the River Ebble and its tributaries has been reinstated today. The river flows east from Berwick to Alvediston. At 8 pm, the Ebble was steady and normal at just over half a metre 💧
🟠 River Nadder
There is also an amber advisory in place for the River Nadder and its tributaries this evening.
The Nadder at Tisbury was high but steady at just over one metre 💧.
🟠 Upper Stour
The amber advisory with the greatest impact on the Alfred area is the flood alert for the Upper Stour and its tributaries, including the Motcombe Brook, the Sturkel, Fontmell Brook, the Shreen Water, and the Lodden.
The Lodden is falling and normal at 1.2 metres 💧 The Stour at Le Neubourg Way is steady and normal at 0.72 metres 💧. The Shreen Water is steady and normal at 0.3 metres 💧, while the Motcombe Brook is rising at 0.18 metres 💧 and is currently within normal levels.
However, conditions could change later this evening, with heavy rain forecast that could bring up to three inches of rainfall above Shaftesbury overnight.