HOW TO PREDICT FOOTBALL MATCHES & PROFIT USING THIS BETTING FORMULA (1X2, BTTS, Over/under 2.5)

Betting-Analyst is here to help you win. In this upload ‘’How To Predict Football Matches & Profit Using This Betting Formula, I will show you how to create your own betting odds and beat the sports books at their own game!

If you are in Sportsbetting to profit, Betting-Analyst is the right channel. As a long-standing professional gambler, I will help you beat the enemy with easy-to-use systems and formulas.

In this upload, we use last season's data from the top five football leagues. You will learn how to:

+ Read data
+ Convert chance (%) to Betting Odds.
+ Understand simple betting maths
+ Use a Poisson distribution calculator
+ Compare & Analyse results
+ Attacking/defensive strength formulas
+ Predict the xG (expected goals) of any match.
+ Use poisson to calculate betting odds.

Below, you will find the ‘’how to predict football matches & profit using this betting formula’’ calculation explained:

WEST HAM 2023/24 SEASON DATA
HOME GOALS 31:18 AWAY GOALS 29:46

ASTON VILLA 2023/24 SEASON DATA
HOME GOALS 48:28 AWAY GOALS 28:33

We are only interested in what happened to West Ham at home and Aston Villa Away.

The number of goals in last season's Premier League 1246.

How to calculate Attack Strength

1. determine the average number of goals scored per team, home game, and away game.
Season total goals scored at home/number of games (in season)
Season total goals scored away / number of games (in season)
In EPL, Home 684/380 & 459/380 away, equalling 1.80 Home & 1.48 Away
The ratio of a team's average and the league average is what constitutes “Attack Strength”.

Home goals 684 (average 1.80 per game)
Away goals 562 (average 1.48 per game)

WEST HAM AT HOME:

Calculate West Ham’s Attack Strength:

Step - 1: Number of goals scored at home by West Ham 31/19 (number of games) = 1.63
Step - 2: Divide this value by the season’s average home goals (1.63/1.80) to get an “Attack Strength” of 0.91.
Calculate Aston Villa’s Defence Strength:
Step - 1: Number of goals conceded away by Aston Villa 33/19 (number of games) = 1.74
Step - 2: Divide this by the season’s average Conceded away goals (1.74/1.80) to get a “Defence Strength” of 0.97

To find the xG for West Ham - simply:

Step 3: Multiply 0.91 (attack) * 0.97 (defence) * 1.80 (League average) = 1.59

ASTON VILLA AWAY

Step - 1: Number of goals scored Away by Aston Villa 28/19 (number of games) = 1.47
Step - 2: Divide this value (1.47) by the season’s average away goals (1.47/1.48) to get an “Attack Strength” of 0.99.
Calculate West Ham’s Defence Strength:
Step - 1: Number of goals conceded home by West Ham 28/19 (number of games) = 1.48
Step - 2: Divide this (1.47) by the season’s average Conceded Home goals (1.47/1.48) to get a “Defence Strength” of 0.99

Step 3: Multiply 0.99 (attack) 0.99 (defence) 1.48 (League average) = 1.45

WEST HAM 1:59 xG
ASTON VILLA 1:45 xG

Put those numbers into the xG calculator of SINCEAWIN

https://sinceawin.com/data/tools/poisson

West Ham 2.47 - draw 4.18 - Away 2.81

Over 2.5 goals 1.69/2.45 Under

BTTS YES: 1.69: 2.45 (no)

THE LIMITS OF POISSON DISTRIBUTION
Poisson Distribution is a simple predictive model that doesn’t allow for numerous factors. Situational factors – such as club circumstances, game status etc. – and subjective evaluation during the transfer window are completely ignored.

Correlations are also ignored; such as the widely recognised pitch effect that shows certain matches has a tendency to be either high or low-scoring.

These are other important areas in lower league games, which can give bettors an edge against bookmakers. It is harder to gain an edge in major leagues such as the Premier League given the expertise and resources that modern bookmakers have at their disposal.

The other Poisson calculator used in this video:

https://xgscore.io/apps/odds-calculator

IN CONCLUSION

I would highly recommend that Sports-modelling beginners learn to use this simple method. Once you have acquired the basic knowledge, learn to incorporate situational factors. And, once you have acquired the skills, it's time to consider moving to a ratings system!

ps - the above system is easy to do in Excel!!

Betting syndicates, Sportsbooks and many professional gamblers use the same, and this is what you will need to bet in mass.

For those interested:

Poisson Distribution formula:

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P(x; μ) = (e-μ) (μx) / x!

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HOW TO PREDICT FOOTBALL MATCHES & PROFIT USING THIS BETTING FORMULA