Скачать или смотреть Probability: What Are the Chances? | Chapter 5 - The Practice of Statistics (6th Edition)

Chapter 5 of The Practice of Statistics (Sixth Edition) introduces the foundational concepts of probability—the mathematics of chance that underpins statistical inference. The chapter begins by defining probability as a number between 0 and 1 that describes the likelihood of an event, using both theoretical and empirical approaches. Students explore the law of large numbers, which explains why long-run relative frequencies stabilize with more trials, and learn how to interpret probability models composed of a sample space and assigned probabilities. The chapter covers basic probability rules, including the complement rule, the addition rule for disjoint (mutually exclusive) events, and the general addition rule for any two events. Visual tools such as Venn diagrams and two-way tables help model probabilities and detect associations between events. The concept of independence is introduced, along with the multiplication rule for independent events, and the general multiplication rule for any events. Conditional probability is explained as P(A|B), with emphasis on understanding context and applying rules correctly. The chapter concludes with the tree diagram as a versatile tool for modeling multistage probability problems and highlights the difference between independent events and mutually exclusive events. By the end, learners can calculate probabilities, interpret them in real-world contexts, and apply rules to complex, multi-step scenarios with confidence.

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