Скачать или смотреть Regression toward the mean

Doug Lisle Ph.D. :It turns out to be the case that offspring’s IQs are expected to be 13 points different than the parents IQs. And if two regular unrelated people in the population drawn randomly from a crowd from Time Square on New Years, the average difference between those two people is only 17 points. So of course very intelligent parents, are likely to have intelligent children, but they’re also likely to have children that are average. And so it’s not going to be the case that the Chinese or anybody else is going to be able to selectively breed a pair of 150 IQ parents and wind up with a 150 IQ child. If they breed a couple of parents that have 150 IQs, the child is very likely to have a 137 IQ. And then if they breed that child, the second generation to a 150 IQ superstar then the mean of those two people would be 144 so therefore the next child out is likely to be 131. So they aren’t able to maintain it as we see the high IQ parents who started out at 150, they’re child will be 137, they’re grandchild will be 131. It’s not going to fly. So, this is the regression to the mean phenomenon.
That’s why there is a young man out there who loves basketball, and his name is Michael Jordan. He’s Michael Jordan’s son, and he’s a pretty big guy, I think he’s 6’2,6’3, played College Basketball at some tiny little Podunk school, he wasn’t very good. He got heckled because he wasn’t anything like his dad, but he loved the game and he played it anyway. So he’s basically a small time little small college hack basketball player, good for him, I’m proud of the guy that he went out there and he played because he loved the game. Even though he can’t even sniff the big time even in college ball.
So that’s regression to the mean, and so that’s how it actually works. When it come to races there are racial differences, in personality, there are racial differences in physical ability of various kinds, on average. Within every what you would call a race there’s a huge diversity of individuals in there. But within each of those that you could plot a bell curve and those bell curves are going to be different on every possible dimension including the structure of their teeth.
What we find is that two very smart people are likely to have an above average child. They may have a really smart one, they may have an average one. So I know of two people who’s IQs I can definitely tell you are north of 140. I know both of them, and they’re child is literally in the middle of the bell curve. Okay, so this is regression towards the mean and anybody that thinks like begets like in very high tolerances and therefore there’s a stratification of genes and capability, that was essentially predicted by the Bell Curve in 1986, this turns out to be not true. That the genes and their attendant strengths and weaknesses, flow reasonably freely up and down the gene pool, and that’s actually how inheritance seems to work in our species.