Biggest X-Flare of the Cycle & an Earth-Directed Storm Train | Solar Storm Forecast 04 October 2024

This Space Weather News forecast sponsored in part by Millersville University:
https://www.millersville.edu/swen
This week, our Sun wakes up in a big way, firing multiple big flares, including an X9-flare from Region 3842, the largest flare yet of this solar cycle. This region began its rampage as it entered the Earth-strike zone and has now launched two big, Earth-directed solar storms. Along with some smaller storms sandwiched in between the large, faster storms, this solar storm train is set to begin hitting Earth on October 4. The speed estimate for the initial impact has a larger margin of error than usual, due to a sparsity of coronagraph observations during the eruption so the storm arrival window stretches clear to the morning hours of October 5.
We are expecting G3 levels during the peak of the storm, so aurora photographers should get a good chance for some nice shows from October 4 through at least October 6. Sadly, this heightened activity complicates the ongoing Hurricane Helene emergency response. Amateur radio operators, please be aware that dayside communications will be noisy this week and be subject to periodic radio blackouts up to the high R3-level. (We nearly had an R4-level blackout today.) Nightside communication will be difficult during the multi-storm passage on October 4 - 6, but then should improve slowly after that. GPS and UAV Search and Rescue responders should also stay vigilant this week as GPS reception will likely worsen around dawn and dusk and likely on the nightside while the storms are passing. Learn the details of this solar storm train, see why Region 3842 has become such a big flare producer, and learn what else our Sun has in store!
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For a more in-depth look at the data and images highlighted in this video see these links below.

Solar Imaging and Analysis:
SDO: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/
Helioviewer: http://www.helioviewer.org/
Flare Analysis: http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest...
Computer Aided CME Tracking CACTUS: http://www.sidc.oma.be/cactus/out/lat...
GOES Xray: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xra...
SOHO: http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/
Stereo: http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
GONG magnetic field synoptic movie: https://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/stan...
GONG magnetic field synoptic charts: http://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/
LMSAL Heliophysics Events HEK http://www.lmsal.com/isolsearch

Solar Wind:
DISCOVR solar wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/rea...
ACE Solar Wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace...
NASA/CCMC/M2M Enlil Solar Storm Prediction Model: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystem...
NOAA/SWPC Enlil Solar Storm Prediction Model: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa...

Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, Atmosphere:
GOES Magnetometer: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goe...
Ionosphere D-Region Absorption (DRAP) model: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-r...
Radio Propagation: https://www.tvcomm.co.uk/g7izu/atlant...
Near-Earth radiation environment: https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/p...
Auroral Oval Ovation Products: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aur...
Global 3-hr Kp index: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/pla...
GEOCHRON Weather Display: www.geochron.com
USGS Ground Magnetometers: http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/

Multi-Purpose Space Environment Sites:
NOAA/SWPC: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov
SOLARHAM: http://www.solarham.net/index.htm
Spaceweather: http://spaceweather.com
iSWA: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa/iSWA.html

Definition of Geomagnetic Storm, Radiation Storm, and Radio Blackout Levels:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/

None of this would be possible without the hard work and dedication of those who have provided all of this data for public use.

Images c/o NASA/NOAA/ESA/CSA (most notably the superb SDO, SOHO, ACE, DSCOVR, STEREO, CCMC, M2M, JPL & DSN teams, amazing professionals, hobbyists, institutions, organizations, agencies and amateurs such as those at the USAF/HAARP, NICT, NOAA, USGS, Environment Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Intellicast, Catatania, rice.edu, wisc.edu, sonoma.edu ucalgary.ca, rssi.ru, ohio-state.edu, solen.info, and so much more. Thanks for making Space Weather part of our every day dialogue.