The Truck Market CRASH of 2026 will hit HARDEST. Truck inventory continues to skyrocket, prices continue to shoot to the moon, and people are becoming less and less interested in buying. Dealers across the country are beginning to panic! There's about 3M new vehicles available in the US right now, about a third of that consists of pickups.
People are giving up on buying new cars every 3-5 years like they used to. Now, people are having to choose between making their car payment or mortgage/rent payment. With the cost of auto insurance over doubling since 2023, and the average cost of a new vehicle bing $50,000... People cannot justify paying $770 or more every month for a depreciating asset. Auto manufacturers and car dealers got greedy throughout the pandemic. Charging markups or addendums over MSRP on so many vehicles, dealers treated the consumer like another number... another brick in the wall. People are not fed up.
Vehicle repossession rates continue to skyrocket within the US. Between 2023 and 2024, we saw an unprecedendent growth of 23%, from about 1.5M vehicles repo'd to 1.75M repos. Here in 2025, we're on track to continue that trend and reach 2M+ vehicles reposessed. People are giving up, they're feeling drained by all the constant price hikes. We're seeing the highest auto loan delinquency levels since the 08-09 recession. By the end of 2025, we're slated to surpass the amount of 30-day and 60-day auto loan delinquency rates of the 08-09n recession. Consequently, new vehicle inventory within the US is on the rise. We have so many unsold 2024, 2025 carryover units still on dealer lots. All while all-new 2026 models are hitting the lots. MSRPs have risen over 42% across the board since 2019. With the tariffs considered, we're looking at a 50% growth by mid-2026. New cars, trucks, SUVs are already wildly overpriced as it is, how do auto manufacturers believe they'll be able to get away with more price hikes?
Fellow analysts agree that the tariffs will have an estimate 5-7% growth on new car prices over the next year. People overpaid for their new vehicle throughout the last few years, because of that -many folks are upside down on their auto loans still. 1/4 auto loans out right now have a negative equity, meaning, the person owes MORE than what the vehicle is currently worth. The national average for negative equity is $7,700. So between being upside down on their auto loan, and the hugely inflated price tags of new vehicles, people are deciding to keep ahold of their current vehicle for much longer. On top of it all, interest rates haven't let up, we're still looking at a 7.2% national average for NEW vehicle purchases, and 11.4% for USED vehicle purchases in 2025.
Once popular makes and models are now sitting on dealer lots for several months on end. Examples include Toyota Tundra, Tacoma, Ram 1500, Chevy Silverado and Ford F150s. Vehiucles that once sold within days are now collecting dust too, to include the Rav4, TRD Pro models, Trailhunter models, Platinums Fords, ZR2 Bison, Kia Telluride, etc. Manufacturers like Acura, Honda, and Toyota are adjusting their production lines to ensure matched demand. Nissan and Stellantis continue to struggle tremendously, with no silver lining in sight. BMW, Audi, and Mercedes Benz are seeing record low sales right now too, even when they generally target the upper class. Nobody seems to have money right now. All new cars have become luxury status symbols that have far too much tech and creatuyre comforts included.
EV Sales will continue to plummet as the federal-government subsidy was removed end of Sept 2025. EPA regulations and restrictions are being lifted under the Trump administration, which is lessening demand and interest in EVs across the board, and bringing back a lot of V8 gas engine options -like with Ram. The huge inventory levels will undoubetly force some dealers to go bankrupt in 2026, the floor plan costs will eat them up.
Do you think all of this is a recipe for a truck market crash in 2026?
So what are you seeing at your local dealerships? Are they selling cars? Or are they sitting collecting dust like they are here? Let me know in the comments. If you enjoy this type of content, please consider Liking and Subscribing for more! Your support is greatly appreciated.
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