Скачать или смотреть Markets Rebound Fast But One Level Still Blocks A Rally | Elliott Wave S&P500 VIX Technical Analysis

Elliott wave analysis continues to frame the US market outlook this week, with price action, liquidity, and macro signals still needing confirmation before a decisive breakout higher.

Markets started the holiday-shortened week with volatility driven by geopolitical headlines around tariffs and Greenland, but those fears eased quickly once military action was ruled out and discussions with NATO appeared constructive. Price recovered sharply, yet the S&P 500 remains capped below the key 690 level. That zone is still acting as resistance, and while the broader structure remains a symmetrical triangle, follow-through above 690 is required before declaring a clean breakout. Low volume and muted volatility into the end of the week suggest patience is still warranted.

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:: Sections in this Video ::
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00:00 - Introduction
00:24 - US Market Overview
03:10 - SPY
04:36 - VIX
05:55 - TLT
07:16 - Economic News
08:00 - SPX & Macro Phases
08:46 - SPX & Fed Liquidity
09:35 - TNX
10:08 - US Dollar
10:31 - DIA
11:18 - QQQ
11:58 - IWM
13:28 - UNG
15:08 - USO
16:00 - GLD
17:00 - SLV
18:03 - BITB
18:51 - ETHW
19:25 - ASML
21:55 - NBIS
22:51 - PATH
23:29 - SMCI
24:17 - PDD
25:13 - CTM
26:04 - AMD
26:49 - NFLX
27:49 - SNDK

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Volatility remains contained, but the VIX is carving out lower highs within a descending structure, reinforcing the need to stay disciplined rather than complacent. Bonds continue to play a pivotal role. TLT shows signs that a potential wave five may be complete, with yields easing modestly. If this continues, it would be supportive for equities, but confirmation is still needed. Inflation data remains below 3%, easing immediate pressure on the Fed, while GDP readings continue to point toward economic expansion.

Macro phase data remains constructive, with expansion leading contraction, but liquidity is the key variable to watch closely. Recent contraction in Fed liquidity raises questions about whether financial conditions are ready to support a sustained upside move. Liquidity remains the primary driver, and any further deterioration would likely cap equity gains regardless of otherwise supportive fundamentals.

Across the major indices, the Dow is extended in a wave five and bears watching for exhaustion or relabeling. The Nasdaq remains locked in a large triangle, setting the stage for a meaningful directional move once resolved. Small caps continue to show strong risk appetite, with IWM outperforming, though short-term overextension suggests backing and filling may continue before another push higher.

Commodities have been active, with natural gas surging on supply concerns tied to extreme cold and short covering. Oil remains range-bound in the zone OPEC appears intent on defending. Precious metals continue to attract strong flows, with gold and silver accelerating higher but now stretched relative to their short-term moving averages, increasing the odds of consolidation. Crypto remains vulnerable, holding key support levels but still at risk if those levels fail.

Individual stocks reviewed include ASML, NBIS, PATH, SMCI, PDD, CTM, AMD, Netflix, and SanDisk, with a focus on Elliott wave structure, key Fibonacci levels, moving averages, and triangle formations. Several setups are approaching inflection points, but most still require confirmation through breakouts or improved trend alignment before higher-confidence entries emerge.