Скачать или смотреть AI Explains Leeds vs Fulham: xG, Injuries, Weather & Win Probabilities

This video explains an AI-generated match forecast for Leeds United vs Fulham, breaking down why the model reaches its conclusions—not just what it predicts.

Using Random Forests, Neural Networks, and Monte Carlo simulations, we analyze win probabilities, expected goals (xG), and likely game flows. This match is especially interesting because the AI slightly favors Leeds United, despite Fulham holding the higher Elo rating.

We also factor in:

Weather conditions (cloud cover & visibility)

Injury availability and squad depth

Tactical tempo implied by xG distributions

Scoreline clustering from Monte Carlo runs

This is part of The Gambler’s Ruin Project, focused on model transparency, not hype.

AI Model Snapshot

Win probabilities: Leeds [%] | Draw [%] | Fulham [__%]

Expected Goals (xG): Leeds [] – [] Fulham

Elo rating edge: Fulham +[__]

Model disagreement: Yes — contextual override

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