Скачать или смотреть Tracing America's Political Realignment: From 1994 to 2023

America’s political map looks chaotic today, but if you zoom out, there’s a straight line connecting 1994, 2016, and everything happening right now. In 1994, Republicans swept the House on suburban anger about taxes, crime, and cultural change. That moment cracked the old New Deal coalition. But by the early 2000s, those same suburbs started drifting left as college-educated voters shifted priorities.

Then 2016 flipped everything again. White working-class counties that were Democratic for generations moved sharply right, reshaping the Midwest. Meanwhile, the Sun Belt’s booming, diverse metros became the new political battlegrounds. The same forces that cracked the map in ’94 and scrambled it in 2016 are still at work: education polarization, cultural identity, and where economic opportunity is actually landing.

So when people say “this election feels unprecedented,” history says the opposite. This is the third act of the same realignment. The only question is which group moves next—college grads, rural holdouts, young renters, or new arrivals in the Sun Belt?