Скачать или смотреть Don't overcook the economic impact of the rise in oil prices

The conflict in and around the Gulf States has seen the oil price increase on the back of concerns of supply disruptions. The WTI price of oil has increased around 30% in the past month to around US$75 a barrel, - but it is still about 10% lower than it was a year ago.
A few chicken-littles are worried that the increase in the oil price will have a material impact on the global (and Australian) economy, a view that seems way out of proportion to the importance of oil in the global economy.
According to the World Bank, oil intensity in the global economy (the amount of oil needed to produce one unit of GDP) has fallen 60% since the 1970s oil shock. This is due to the move to renewables, great oil efficiency and the boom in services in the compositional structure of most economies over that time.
For Australia and any impact on inflation, it is worth noting that petrol makes up 3.35% of the CPI basket. Not big, not small. We consumers spend more on beer and wine than we do on petrol and it is about the same level of importance as purchases of clothes and shoes.
And in any event, the RBA will almost certainly trim any petrol price effect out of the CPI if, indeed, the oil price remains elevated or increases further in the months ahead (which is by no means certain).