Скачать или смотреть Introduction to Prediction Markets: The Speedrun Ethereum Challenge - BuidlGuidl's Builder Bootcamp

This presentation serves as an introduction to prediction markets, focusing on the core building blocks necessary to create your own decentralized market. It covers the essential components: the Oracle (the ultimate verifier), the Automated Market Maker (AMM), and the concept of Conditional Markets. The talk also emphasizes the critical role of Liquidity Providers (LPs) in setting initial price probabilities and managing the risk of market manipulation, relating the concepts to the existing Speedrun Ethereum challenge.

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0:00 Introduction to Prediction Markets & Building Blocks
0:00:21 Prediction Markets in the Speedrun Ethereum Challenge
0:01:00 Core Mechanism: Why People Bet on the Market
0:02:16 Prediction Markets for Forecasting
0:03:22 Building Block 1: The Oracle (The Verifier)
0:04:30 Building Block 2: The Automated Market Maker (AMM)
0:05:32 Liquidity & Price Discovery in Prediction Markets
0:06:55 The Role of Liquidity Providers (LPs) & Initial Price Setting
0:08:44 The Importance of Correct Initial Price/Probability
0:10:04 The Problem with Low Liquidity
0:11:47 Building Block 3: Conditional Markets (Prediction on a Prediction)
0:13:30 The Gnosis Conditional Token Standard (ERC-1155 Extension)
0:14:26 Conditional Market Example (ETH Price & Dencun Upgrade)
0:15:23 Conditional Market Logic Flow
0:18:28 What is Next for Prediction Markets?
0:20:47 Live Demo/Q&A - Setting up a Market
0:24:26 Q&A: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets
0:28:44 Q&A: Prediction Markets and Decentralization
0:34:06 Q&A: The Importance of Liquidity
0:41:20 Q&A: Creating an Initial Market with the Right Probabilities
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