Скачать или смотреть China’s $8 Trillion Shift Away From The Dollar: The Slow‑Motion Shock For Western Markets

When I say China’s $8 trillion shift away from the dollar, I’m not throwing out a random big number to scare you.

I’m talking about three concrete pools of money and how Beijing chooses to use them over the next decade:

1. Foreign‑exchange reserves – about $3.3–$3.4 trillion.
This is the pile of foreign assets held by China’s central bank—mostly dollars and euros, historically. Think of it as China’s official rainy‑day fund and war chest.

2. Overseas assets and outward investment – over $3 trillion.
This includes years of outbound foreign direct investment, overseas construction and lending tied to the Belt & Road Initiative, stakes in ports, power plants, telecoms, and other strategic assets worldwide.

3. The trade surplus – currently running around $1.2 trillion a year.
In a typical recent year, China exports around $3.7–$3.8 trillion and imports about $2.5–$2.6 trillion. The difference—roughly $1.2 trillion—is fresh surplus cash that has to go somewhere every single year.

Add those up and you’re in the neighborhood of $8 trillion in:

Existing reserves,
Existing overseas assets, and
The cumulative surpluses that will have to be parked, lent, or invested over the coming decade.
Here’s the key idea:

China’s “$8 trillion move” is not one big sale or one shock event. It’s the ongoing decision: do we keep parking this money inside Western dollar markets, or do we route it around them?

Every notch China turns away from dollar assets and toward other stores of value is quiet pressure building inside the Western financial system.

Let’s look at the first channel.

Disclaimer:
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References :

China’s foreign‑exchange reserves around USD 3.36 trillion at end‑2025, as reported by SAFE and Xinhua.
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Stock of China’s outward direct investment at roughly USD 3.14 trillion, according to official 2024 ODI statistics.
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Record 2025 trade surplus of about USD 1.19–1.2 trillion, with exports ~USD 3.77T and imports ~USD 2.58T, and sharp shift away from U.S. toward Africa, SE Asia, EU and Latin America.
3
China’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries cut from a peak of ~USD 1.32T in 2013 to about USD 688.7B in October 2025 and USD 682.6B in November 2025, the lowest since 2008.
4
PBoC gold holdings rising to about 74.1–74.15 million oz by late 2025, with 13–14 consecutive months of reported purchases, while total FX reserves continue to rise.
5
Central banks buying over 1,000 tonnes of gold per year in 2022–2024, extending a long streak of net purchases and raising gold’s share in global reserves.
6
CIPS (China’s Cross‑Border Interbank Payment System) processing about RMB 175–175.5 trillion (~USD 24–24.5T) in 2024 and expanding to thousands of participants in nearly 190 countries, supporting increased yuan‑based trade settlement.
7
Evidence of BRICS and Russia–China trade moving to local‑currency settlement and calls for alternative payment systems that reduce dollar reliance.
8
Cumulative Belt & Road engagement surpassing USD 1.17T by 2024 and USD 1.3T by mid‑2025, with growing focus on energy, mining, and manufacturing projects.
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AidData’s “China’s Global Loans and Grants Dataset” estimating about USD 2.2T in Chinese overseas lending and grants from 2000–2023, including large exposures even in high‑income countries like the U.S.
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