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The February 2026 crisis between Pakistan and Afghanistan, sparked by a sectarian mosque bombing in Islamabad claimed by militants linked to Islamic State affiliates and followed by Pakistani airstrikes inside Afghanistan, illustrates a dangerous cycle driven by weak governance, militant sanctuaries, and mutual accusations of sovereignty violations. Afghanistan’s fractured Taliban rule and Pakistan’s internal instability both enable groups such as the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan and Islamic State Khorasan Province to operate, while retaliation risks escalating into proxy conflict, regional spillover, and renewed extremist recruitment. Wider powers, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, China, Russia, India, and the United States, fear instability threatening sectarian balance, infrastructure projects, and global security, yet institutions like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation lack cohesion to enforce de-escalation. Overall, the episode reflects a deeper structural crisis: two fragile states trapped in a feedback loop of militancy and retaliation, where, without institutional rebuilding and regional cooperation, localized violence could evolve into sustained South Asian instability

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