Скачать или смотреть The End of Efficiency: Why Security & Duplication Drive Inflation

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Thank you for being here. 🙏 The era of the peace dividend, hyper-optimization, and high ROIC is over.
It's replaced by a security premium, driving a great duplication of the industrial world.
This process is inherently inflationary.
Mechanics of Duplication:
1. Capex Multiplier: Building in the West costs 3-5x more than in East Asia due to a lack of established ecosystems.
2. Inventory Reversal: Buffer stocks are now strategic insurance, with holding costs passed to consumers.
Implementation Strategies:
Reshoring (US): Limited to strategic, capital-intensive sectors due to high costs and labor scarcity.
Near/Friend-shoring (Mexico, Vietnam): The preferred, lower-cost alternative.
Physical Constraints:
1. Critical Minerals: Supply chains are highly concentrated; new mines take 10-15 years to develop.
2. Energy Transition: The shift to capital-intensive, lower-density renewables causes a systemic decline in Energy Return on Investment (EROI), consuming more economic output.

Argues that the era of the peace dividend, characterized by hyper-optimized global efficiency and a focus on Return on Invested Capital, is over. It has been replaced by a security premium driving a great duplication of the industrial world, which is inherently inflationary. This shift involves intentionally building redundant production capacity in secure or politically aligned regions, accepting higher costs and lower investment returns for resilience and supply chain sovereignty. The mechanics of this duplication include a capex multiplier, where building advanced facilities in the US or Western Europe costs three to five times more than in East Asia due to the absence of established specialized supporting ecosystems and institutional memory. Additionally, there's a reversal in inventory philosophy, with buffer stocks now considered strategic insurance, leading to higher holding costs passed to consumers. While reshoring to the US is supported by targeted policies in capital-intensive, national security-related sectors, it faces limitations due to high costs and a scarcity of qualified labor. Consequently, nearshoring and friend-shoring to countries like Mexico, Vietnam, India, and Thailand are preferred alternatives, offering a smaller security premium. This duplication drive also collides with physical constraints, particularly in critical minerals and energy infrastructure. Global supply chains for critical minerals are highly concentrated, especially in processing, and diversifying them is challenging due to long geological and permitting timelines (10-15 years for new mines). The energy transition itself contributes to structural inflation by shifting to lower-density intermittent renewables, which require more physical capital and lead to a systemic decline in Energy Return on Investment, diverting a greater share of economic output to building and maintaining the energy apparatus.