Скачать или смотреть ITC's Tobacco Tax Tsunami

In a seismic shift for India's FMCG titan, ITC shares cratered nearly 10% on January 1, 2026, extending losses into January 2 to breach a 52-week low of ₹345.25. The culprit? A draconian government hike in excise duties on cigarettes and tobacco products, slated for February 1, 2026 – a 25-30% escalation aimed at curbing consumption amid rising health crusades. This isn't just a puff of smoke; it's a full-blown inferno threatening ITC's core cigarette segment, which still commands 80% of profits despite diversification into hotels, paperboards, and foods.
Analysts are divided: Bears howl of margin erosion, projecting a 15% EPS dip in FY27 as volume slumps under sticker shock. Bulls counter with ITC's fortress balance sheet – ₹30,000 crore cash pile – and agile pivot to premium brands and non-tobacco growth engines like Sunfeast and Bingo, which surged 12% YoY. At 22x forward PE, is this panic-selling a fire-sale entry for long-term value hunters, or a prelude to deeper cuts if smuggling surges?
Market volatility reigns, but history favors the bold: ITC rebounded 40% post-2019 tax hikes. Watch Q3 earnings for clues. Diversify, don't despair – opportunity lurks in the ashes.

Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk. The information shared in this video is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. The stock market is experiencing heightened volatility, driven by economic uncertainties, fluctuating interest rates, and global events. In such times, it is crucial to focus on risk management, proper asset allocation, and informed decision-making rather than chasing quick gains. Investors should prioritize both fundamental and technical analysis, set realistic expectations, avoid emotional trading, and diversify their portfolios to navigate shifting sectoral trends and market conditions. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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