Скачать или смотреть How To Evaluate True Macro Risk | Ideas Lab 30

Our guest on this episode is Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, the Global Chief Economist at BCG and author of a new book: Shocks, Crises and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk. He explains why it’s wrong to put focus on extreme “doom mongering” predictions - which often turn out to be false alarms. We discuss his intuitive framework for evaluating economic predictions and use it to evaluate the risk of inflation and debt in the coming years.

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Episode Summary
02:07 - Introduction to Philipp Carlsson
03:08 - What motivated Carlsson to write his book?
05:13 - A framework for assessing macro risk
09:00 - How do we react to doomsayings?
11:18 - Covid19 - the perfect example of a false alarm
15:15 - The new area of tightness
18:27 - It is all about labour cost
23:46 - The deflationary power of technology
26:46 - The outlook of the labour market
32:22 - Why inflation expectations will stay achored in a world of tightness
39:38 - What happens in a world with an upward bias to inflation?
43:26 - The difference between existential and tactical crises
46:56 - Carlsson's framework for assessing the risk of debt
52:04 - Carlsson's outlook for the economy going forward

Full episode can be found here:
https://toptradsersunplugged.com/il30

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https://www.amazon.com/Shocks-Crises-...