Week 5-2024: Stability persists in global scrap and finished markets with sales mostly dull through

China:
- Chinese futures recounded slightly in last week after the government intervention in money markets, Dbar up 1.66%, HRC up by 1.73%, Coking coal up by 0.20%, Iron ore up by 4.92%
- Spot Iron ore is at $136/mt up by $6/mt w-o-w
- Coking coal stable at $337.5/mt
- HRC Spot prices stable at $580 on average for Pakistan
- Chinese Real estate market's response is still not upto the mark, Futures market reacted fast against gov intervention but no major change in Spot pricings
- Mills run with low or negative margins for flat productions mainly, BF mills are loosing more then the EAF's due to expensive raw materials
- Tangshan processors are being asked to cut down sintering and productions by 30-50% to control air pollutions as the Air quality index goes down in the region, which may support pricing of finished while will badly affect the Iron ore pricing
-Taiwan prices stagnant to down by 2-3$/mt, Finished long pirces wer eimproved by 10$/mt but mills ar enot active in new scrap procurement for next 2-3 weeks thus trying to push prices down.
-Vietnam prices are stagnant with some import buying done last week but no change in pricing, activity is slowing down now prior to Lunar holidays, Bids are lower from mills to test markets and due to no immediate appetite for scrap
-Japanese domestic scrap prices under pressure, as the major mills cut down buying prices of scrap, exports market also slow


Turkey:
- Turkey kept on booking scrap cargos for Feb/ and march
Earlier in the week, UK HMS bought at $413/mt and later in the week EU HMS booked at $420/mt , Shredded bookings stand at $438-440 levels
- Scrap prices in Turkey adjusted down by 2$ in last week
- Turkish rebar prices stable due to increased prices of scrap and higher wages of labor, $615-620 FOB while 635-640 ex works basis, Mills struggling to pass on the hikes to consumers or to negotiate the scrap prices down.
- Sharp increase of labor wages coming in 2024, 98% rise in 1st six months of 2024, and 30% increase in second half of 2024

Middle east:
- War conflicts in the region raising concerns for all stake holders/countries in the region who have been trying to push the economies up
- World steel declared the sector as best performing one, Dubai & Saudia among the top, Crude steel production in middle east increased by 4% y-o-y, Kuwait by 11%, Qatar by 6%
- Dubai real estate is in high demand, with investors flocking in and creating real legitimate demand, thus teh rebar prices in Dubai are at the top in the region
- KSA has high goals set but somehow could'nt execute and deliver as expected in last year, but they plan to keep the pace on in 2024
- Real bullishness may come after Ramadan and Eid holidays in the region, and once the geographical war issue cools down
- Clarity about Export Duty in Dubai may come by next week.

Europe:
- Italian mills increased the Flat's prices by Euro15/mt, although demand not good yet, but higher costs needs to be passed on.
- Demand over all is slow, but mills comfortable with the order books as of now, but the time will come when they will have to get the orders by dropping prices if the economy does not perform better.
Iran/Russia
Billet prices are pretty stable and order books are healthy so no major change from these markets

Bangladesh & India
-Market remained sluggish Bangladesh and customers are on a wait and watch position
-Indian market has also lack of activity and liquidity at the moment, Slow down due to elections is evident, No queries and enquiries from the customers. Customer's expect it will go on further for a month until they liquidate their high stocks and iventories.
-JSW India profits went down by 17% in Q3 due to intense competition worldwide, Election season in India and poor liquidity.

Pakistan
* Shredded offers were at $438-447/mt with some booking heard at $440 and $442 levels
* Customers shaky about booking Middle east scraps due to the issues with export Duty, but tonnages booked at +5-7$ as compared to last week at $415 levels in last week
* Rebar and finished prices hiked by Rs. 3000 again last week.
* Clarity about Dubai scrap market may come in next week, as timebeing customers expect that their won't be any hiccups related to deliveries of scrap from Duabi.