Ukrainian Equipment Losses and Resupply (2024): Allied support, captured equipment & endurance

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Two weeks ago, we looked at estimates of Russian equipment losses in Ukraine and the mounting issues of storage depletion and equipment quality. (   • Russian Equipment Losses & Reserves (...  )

However, in a war like this, equipment losses take on most of their strategic relevance when they're considered in relative terms. That is, who is going to start feeling the pain from materiel shortages first, and how may it shape the wider war.

So, as promised, today we look at Ukrainian equipment loss estimates, discuss the potential impact of changing equipment quality, and dive a little deeper into a few key equipment categories and the changing nature of the force

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Caveats, Comments and Corrections:

One chart shows the Strv 122 appearing twice - this is an error however the data shown is correct in both cases.

I will also note the M113 supply list includes both Benelux and Netherlands lines. These relate to separate efforts for different vehicles in the M113 family. With the Dutch line relating to the YPR-765

All normal caveats and disclaimers apply

In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes

Sources & Reading:

This video is primarily data-centric so I will include relevant notes there up front

The primary source for visually confirmed losses and equipment commitments remain the relevant Oryx databases - this is done to ensure that data comes from a consistent source across videos. Sense checking can be done against other VC database efforts, including Warspotting and Lostarmour in the case of losses, and national announcements for equipment pledges.

Relevant news articles featured or other relevant pieces are also included below:

Germany and Slovakia work to extend repair hub beyond 2024
https://www.defensenews.com/global/eu...

Russia's demilitarisation headline from June 2023
https://tass.com/politics/1634505

CV-90 supply
https://www.defensenews.com/global/eu....

Ukrainian pilots training on Gripen - 2023
https://www.twz.com/ukrainian-fighter...

Denmark and Netherlands announce 14 Leo 2A4s will be delivered within weeks
https://www.politico.eu/article/denma...

Spain to deliver HAWK
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/spain-to-re...

France to deliver SPGs
https://apnews.com/article/france-ukr...

Ukrainian MoD on equipment restoration
https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukrain...

Ukraine to create new brigades
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/20...

Ukrainian General on Equipment shortages
https://www.economist.com/europe/2024...

Finland announcing another aid package - sans details
https://kyivindependent.com/finland-s...


Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:53 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:12 — Assessing Ukraine & Russia
00:06:47 — The Quality Question
00:17:51 — The Question Marks: Domestic & Captured
00:19:38 — Losses
00:26:04 — Inputs
00:30:53 — MBTs
00:36:27 — IFVS & APCS
00:45:04 — Aircraft
00:54:56 — Changing Force Composition
01:01:07 — Channel Update