Скачать или смотреть APT Opinion: On Fourth War Anniversary, Putin’s Long War Strategy Is Outlasting the West | APT

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On the fourth anniversary of the Russia–Ukraine war, APT Opinion examines a hard question shaping the geopolitical debate in 2026: has Vladimir Putin shifted from a failed blitz strategy to a long-war doctrine of attrition that structurally challenges Western policy?

What began in 2022 as expectations of a rapid collapse has evolved into a prolonged conflict defined by endurance, infrastructure warfare, sanctions resilience, and sustained military production. This episode breaks down how the war transformed from speed to stamina — with missile strikes on energy grids, drone warfare, incremental territorial pressure, and a recalibrated Russian strategy focused on exhausting Ukraine over time while testing Western political and financial commitment.

The analysis also explores the proxy dimension of the conflict, where the West continues to arm and fund Ukraine without direct military confrontation with Russia, creating a calibrated support model that sustains resistance but prolongs stalemate. As aid cycles, election politics, and public fatigue shape Western responses, Moscow’s narrative of an existential confrontation enables long-term mobilization and strategic patience.

Four years on, Ukraine remains resilient but strained by manpower shortages, infrastructure damage, and economic pressure, while Russia — despite sanctions and heavy losses — has adapted its economy, defense production, and geopolitical partnerships to sustain a prolonged war effort.

This APT Opinion special investigates whether the war has entered a phase where time, endurance, and political will matter more than rapid battlefield breakthroughs — and whether the fourth anniversary marks a strategic inflection point in a conflict increasingly defined by attrition rather than decisive victory.