Скачать или смотреть Gold's road to US$5,000

Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital states that while markets are undeniably headed towards a correction, the notion of a 20% market drop within a year or two is unlikely to shake investor confidence. Cardillo notes that although market valuations are questionable, underlying factors currently support a continued move higher in the short term. He points to an “A-grade” earnings season, with better-than-expected guidance, as providing positive momentum for equities. Cardillo expects that recent soft macroeconomic indicators suggest a slowing economy, adding that the Federal Reserve may be compelled to cut rates as soon as December, potentially by 50 basis points if upcoming data remains negative.

Cardillo highlights a persistent debate within the Federal Reserve between inflation hawks and growth advocates, emphasising the importance of labour market stability. He suggests artificial intelligence’s accelerating adoption may be partly to blame for mounting job losses, which could push the Federal Reserve to act more decisively to stave off recession. In the bond market, Cardillo observes broad weakness, except for strength in the US dollar, which has recently broken above parity.

Turning to commodities, Cardillo sees further upside potential for gold, forecasting prices could reach $5,000 sometime next year, citing supportive underlying fundamentals and continued central bank demand. In energy markets, Cardillo notes oil prices remain technically weak despite significant drawdowns in stockpiles, suggesting a likely rebound towards the mid-$60s range.