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The housing map just redrew itself, and the early signals are hiding in plain sight. We dig into real-time, spending-based migration data that shows a clear turn: several Sunbelt magnets are shifting to net outbound while Midwest and select Northeast cities pull in new residents. This isn’t about trendiness or last cycle’s headlines—it’s about affordability, supply, and how many people are actually moving right now.

We break down why move rates are down roughly a third from their peak and what that means for markets that relied on a constant inflow of buyers. Expect a nuanced price picture: national home prices have slipped for the first time in two years, but the declines concentrate in parts of the South and Mountain West. Meanwhile, Indianapolis, Columbus, and even Cleveland are gaining ground as payment-to-income ratios stay within reach and inventory remains manageable. We compare Atlanta’s rapid run-up and rising supply to Chicago’s tighter market, showing how overshoot risk turns into seller pressure when demand cools.

There’s also a twist where few expected it: segments of downtown San Francisco are stabilizing as AI-driven wealth returns, inventory tightens, and high-end demand reappears. The takeaway is simple and powerful—housing is local, capital seeks opportunity, and affordability is destiny. Sellers in softening markets need surgical pricing and fast adjustments to avoid stale listings. Buyers should anchor decisions on payment ratios, supply velocity, and durable local demand instead of hype. If you want to make a smart move in a noisy market, follow the data, not the narrative.

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