HOW TO WIN AT OVER/UNDER FOOTBALL BETTING: STRATEGIES & TOOLS

Let betting-analyst sharpen your betting with this video: How to win at over/under Football Betting: Strategies & Tools.

We discuss:
SITUATIONAL FACTORS

Even if you use Goal data to create xG (expected goals), you must consider all the other metrics. For example, the following is likely to hurt the numbers & goals being scored:

1. Cold weather: While cold weather doesn’t guarantee that fewer goals will be scored, it will have a long-term negative impact. Data collected over many years points to fewer goals under such conditions.

2. Snow or Heavy Rain: Slowing the pitch will make it harder for strikers to turn and create changes. The risk of injuries and lack of fluidity are other factors.

3. Hot weather, the game is played to conserve energy. Water breaks disrupt the flow, and fatigue is a goal killer!

4. A strong wind is challenging, but gusty/swirling winds make controlling the ball more difficult.

5. Playing in the evening under floodlights makes it harder for strikers. As a rule of thumb, expect 0.2 fewer goals per game

6. Missing key striker. As an example, Haaland averaged one goal per league game for City since arriving. His absence would limit the Citizens scoring potential, and it’s the same for many teams. Use player data (website below) to establish the value of each individual.

On the opposite side, more goals can be expected when:

1. Playing conditions are fair. If it’s 15 degrees and the sun is out, expect more goals going into the net!

2. When a pitch is watered or light rain falls, the surface will be faster. One of the reasons top teams water heavily is to help the pace of the ball, which is a major advantage for quality strikers.

3. Refereeing decisions. A free-flowing game helps strikers, whereas constant stops will limit chances. The impact of the Ref shouldn’t be underrated.

4. Key defenders or the number one goalkeeper missing makes it easier for the opponent's strikers. A manager missing players might use a different approach, in that they will try and play higher up the field!

5. On that note, attacking formations guarantee a more open game, resulting in more goals. Take Man City & Bayern as an example, they usually start 4-2-3-1.

6. Did you know the EFL Cup produced an average of 3.46 goals last season. Some competitions have very different results compared to the league!

APPLY LOGIC

If you are not an originator of Over/under bets, consider BENCHMARKING. You can use Pinnacle, Asian books, or the Exchanges to guide you. Remove the juice using the method shown and target finding better odds with other Sportsbooks.

Did you know that most people want to bet on matches finishing over? The Sportbooks know this, and it’s one of the reasons they keep over goals artificially short. In fact, the same applies to other sports including NFL, NBA, Cricket and MLB. With sportsbook bias in mind, most professional gamblers focus on finding underplays.

If you look at our calculations in this video, you will see that the likes of Bet365 often have better odds on the ''under option'' than any sharp bookmaker. Even the sharp books are guilty of betting with an 'over' bias, so consider swimming against the tide.

With regards to calculating odds, in this video I suggest you familiarise yourself with MPTO, here is the calculation:

MARGIN PROPORTIONAL TO ODDS (MPTO)

This method distributes the margin using the formula:

TrueOdds = (n*BookieOdds)/(n-(margin*BookieOdds)
n represents the total number of outcomes in the market. So a selection with odds of 1.60 in a 3-way market with a total margin of 8% would have:
TrueOdds = (3*1.60)/(3-(0.08*1.60))
TrueOdds = 4.80/2.872
TrueOdds = 1.671

As a result of this distribution method, the True Odds of a favourite will be lower than if you used the EM method. This has been proven to be much more accurate.

You can use this odds calculator to perform the task:
https://winnerodds.com/valuebettingbl...

POISSON DISTRIBUTION CALCULATORS (please note: for the overs/unders - all you need is the Total xG)
https://xgscore.io/apps/odds-calculator
https://sinceawin.com/
https://annabet.com/en/poissoned/ (interesting for 1X2 because it allows you to set the draw - unlike with many other calculators.

EXPECTED GOAL SITES:

You can make life simple by familiarising yourself with the following sites.
https://understat.com/league/EPL
https://footballxg.com/xgstatistics/ - loads of free stats
https://footystats.org/

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