Скачать или смотреть Math Debate that Swung 2024 Taiwan Presidency

In November 2023, the established Kuomintang (Chinese Nationalist Party) and the up-and-coming Taiwan People's Party negotiated to see if they could combine forces to take down the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party.

Spoilers alert: They did not agree, and the DPP won again.

A big part of their disagreement was based on statistical analysis and the criterion determining whether the lead in polls was sizeable. This video essay claims that both sides were only partially correct. This video covers 95% confidence interval, z test for proportions, and t test for correlation coefficient, and a brief rundown of Taiwanese politics. What do polls mean anyways? Don't make the same mistakes as these Taiwanese politicians!

0:00 intro
0:18 the parties
1:06 collab?
1:52 Ko okays process
2:08 six articles
3:04 Hou okays process
3:40 TPP rejects 3 out of 9 polls
5:10 polls and errors
5:53 normal approximation
6:18 sampling errors visualized
6:46 95% confidence interval
7:45 KMT's comparison
8:11 TPP's comparison
8:50 hypothesis testing
9:17 z test for proportions
10:23 z test for KMT criterion
10:54 z test for TPP criterion
11:09 VP = party dies
11:45 third parties = uncertainties
12:20 change to keep status quo
12:54 correlation
13:52 t test for correlation