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The Thorny Issues That Could Derail a Russia–Ukraine Peace Deal

As diplomatic efforts intensify to bring an end to the Russia–Ukraine war, hopes for a peace deal continue to rise — but so do the obstacles. Behind closed doors, negotiators face a series of deeply complex and “thorny” issues that threaten to derail any agreement before it is signed.
One of the most contentious points remains territorial control. Ukraine insists on restoring its internationally recognized borders, while Russia continues to claim annexed regions, making compromise extremely difficult. Security guarantees are another major stumbling block. Kyiv seeks long-term assurances from Western allies to prevent future aggression, while Moscow views NATO involvement as a direct threat to its strategic interests.
Sanctions relief also looms large in negotiations. Russia wants economic sanctions lifted as part of any deal, but the US, UK, and European partners remain divided on whether easing pressure too soon could weaken leverage or undermine accountability. Meanwhile, questions over war crimes investigations, prisoner exchanges, and the return of displaced civilians add further layers of tension.
Domestic politics on both sides complicate matters even more. Leaders must balance international diplomacy with public opinion at home, where concessions could be seen as weakness. For Western governments, maintaining unity among allies while pushing for peace is a delicate act.
While talks continue and back-channel diplomacy offers cautious optimism, these unresolved issues highlight just how fragile the path to peace remains. Any sustainable agreement will require painful compromises, strong guarantees, and international coordination — without them, the risk of talks collapsing remains very real.
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