Canada’s Housing Market: GDP Surprise, Falling Rents, Trump Tariffs & Mortgage Wars

This week, six critical factors emerged that could significantly influence the Canadian housing market in the coming months. First, Statistics Canada revised GDP figures upward, adding 1.3% growth between 2021 and 2023, equivalent to an entire year of economic activity. While this suggests a stronger-than-expected economy, it complicates the Bank of Canada’s recent rate-cutting strategy. Markets now anticipate a 0.25% rate cut in December, with a 60% chance of a larger 0.50% cut, which could stimulate housing demand.

Second, the potential impact of Trump’s proposed tariffs looms large. Should tariffs reach 10-20%, they could shrink Canada’s GDP by up to 2%, reduce foreign investment, and deepen economic challenges. While lower growth may prompt further rate cuts, boosting housing sales and construction, broader economic instability could counteract these benefits.

Meanwhile, rental rates have begun to drop, with a 1.2% national year-over-year decline—the first in years. Vancouver and Toronto saw the steepest drops, at 8.4% and 9.2%, respectively. This shift is driven by record condo completions, slowing population growth, and renters reaching affordability limits. Although rents remain 29% higher than three years ago, the decline provides some relief to tenants.

In the U.S., inflation ticked up to 2.6% in October, its first monthly increase in six months, prompting markets to price in rate cuts from both the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada this December. Lower borrowing costs could invigorate the housing market, setting up for a strong spring in 2025.
October also saw a surge in national home sales, with Toronto leading the way with a 44% year-over-year increase. This spike is largely attributed to pent-up demand and renewed consumer confidence driven by expectations of lower interest rates. Early November data suggests this trend is continuing, pointing to a robust spring market ahead.

Finally, a potential “mortgage war” is brewing as 50% of Canadian mortgages are set to renew in the next two years. With new rules allowing borrowers to switch lenders without requalifying, competition among banks is expected to intensify. Savvy homeowners stand to save tens of thousands of dollars by shopping for better rates, making it crucial to prepare for these opportunities now.


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