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0:00 Intro
0:49 USDA Preview
3:38 Argentina Situation
7:22 Positive(ish) Soybean Spin
10:11 Biofuel Back and Forth
12:15 Ethanol Production

🌽 Welcome back! Big USDA Report Tomorrow 🌽

📊 Crop Production & WASDE Preview
The USDA releases its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report Friday at 11am CST. Traders expect corn and soybean yield/production cuts, though both remain at record highs. Soybean exports could be trimmed again, with China still absent from the US market. Carryout projections: US corn, soybeans, and wheat all expected to decline slightly; global wheat seen higher. The big ticket items tomorrow are US corn and soybean yield estimates—this month USDA adds objective yield data into the mix.

🇦🇷 Argentina Outlook
Rosario Exchange pegs corn production at 61mmt, record-large if rainfall is adequate. 2024/25 outlook also boosted to 50mmt. Soybean acreage expected down 7%, with production forecast at 47mmt vs. 49.5mmt last year. Buenos Aires Exchange also sees lower acreage, down 4.3%.

🇨🇳 China’s Snub of US Soybeans
China booked 7.5mmt of October soybeans—95% from Brazil. At this time last year, they had 12–13mmt from the US. Despite US beans being cheaper, the 23% tariff adds $2/bu, keeping them uncompetitive. Analysts warn US farmers could lose 14–16mmt of soybean sales if China waits until mid-November. Still, USDA projects US exports only -9% YoY, thanks to other global buyers stepping in.

⛽ Biofuels & Policy Uncertainty
Trump’s new biofuel plan rattled the market, with concerns refiners may only face partial obligations. Senator Mike Lee’s bill adds more uncertainty. Biofuel shares (Bunge, ADM, Valero, Green Plains) tumbled; RIN prices hit their lowest since June.

🍶 Ethanol Production & Margins
US ethanol output hit 1.1mil bpd, the strongest for this week in a decade. Stocks rose to 22.8mil barrels. Margins remain strong, anywhere from +20c to +60c across the Corn Belt, supported by low corn prices.

👇 See charts and estimates below.

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