Скачать или смотреть 10/12/2021 CPEP Seminar: Coupled Arctic Numerical Weather Prediction by Dr. Erin Thomas

Title: Coupled Arctic Numerical Weather Prediction

Presentation by: Dr. Erin Thomas, Researcher, Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Abstract: In rapidly changing environments, such as the Arctic, capturing atmosphere-ocean interactions is critical to improve the short term predictability of important socio-economical metrics such as extreme weather events, severe wave activity, and sea ice characteristics and movement. Here, I will discuss a newly developed convective-scale weather forecasting system that is coupled with wave and sea-ice models for the European Arctic as well as an initial evaluation of the coupled forecast system performance. At present, only simple sea-ice coupling is represented, however, ongoing developments to the coupled forecasting system include introducing a) a more complex sea-ice model to capture diverse sea ice behaviors and ice-wave interactions and b) an ocean turbulence model to capture the atmosphere-ocean-wave interactions on short time-scales.

About Dr. Thomas: Dr. Erin Thomas earned her Ph.D. in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at UW-Madison, and moved on to the Norwegian Meteorological Institute where she is now a Researcher. Erin works on the development of a coupled forecast models for the European Arctic and Barents Sea. Her goal is to determine the impact of wave and sea ice coupling on short term Arctic forecasts and improve Arctic forecast products through better representation of atmosphere, wave, sea ice, sea surface temperature interactions. Erin works extensively with the HARMONIE-AROME configuration of the ALADIN-HIRLAM Numerical Weather Prediction system, Wave Watch III spectral wave model, and the OASIS3 model coupling toolkit.