Скачать или смотреть Gerard Jagers; Can evolution be predicted, and how does this affect Big History?

Gerard Jagers
Ph.D. in Ecotoxicology, Ph.D. in physics, mathematics and informatics.

Can evolution be predicted, and how does this affect Big History?
In this talk, Gerard Jagers explores the question of whether evolution, both in biology and on a larger scale, can be predicted. Opinions are divided. On the one hand, in physics and in biology, there are many random processes that defy prediction. On the other hand, certain aspects of evolution may well be predictable. For example, selection produces organisms that fit their habitat in predictable ways, just as the presence of prey generally invites the evolution of predators. As a new means of prediction, the talk will introduce O-theory and how it focuses on the complexification of abstract blueprints of organisms in the course of evolution. Using O-theory, one can see that after many generations with only small genetic changes, an existing blueprint sometimes shows a large change. This happens, for example, when the blueprint of the bacteria changes to that of cells with a nucleus (eukaryotic cells). Or when two or more eukaryotic cells integrate to form a multicellular organism. O-theory shows that, at an abstract level, changes in the blueprint result from a process called “dual closure”. A sequence of dual closures leads to a series of objects, called operators in O-theory, that show blueprints of increasingly complex types, from small physical particles to animals with nervous systems. By using dual closures to create a hierarchy that can be extrapolated, O-theory goes beyond the scope of the major evolutionary transitions of Szathmary and Maynard Smith. This leads to new conjectures about the distant future of evolution and allows Big History to take a predictive turn.

https://bighistory.org/