Скачать или смотреть AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu have 2045+ timelines, think the whole "alignment" framing is wrong, don't think an intelligence explosion is plausible, but are convinced we'll see explosive economic growth (with the economy literally doubling every 1 or 2 years). This discussion offers a totally different scenario than my recent interview with Scott and Daniel. Ege and Tamay are the co-founders of Mechanize (disclosure - I’m an angel investor), a startup dedicated to fully automating work. Before founding Mechanize, Ege and Tamay worked on AI forecasts at Epoch AI.

𝐄𝐏𝐈𝐒𝐎𝐃𝐄 𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐊𝐒
Transcript: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ege-tamay
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/68ee...

𝐒𝐏𝐎𝐍𝐒𝐎𝐑𝐒
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𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒
00:00:00 - AGI will take another 3 decades
00:23:01 - Even reasoning models lack animal intelligence
00:45:38 - Intelligence explosion
01:01:31 - Ege & Tamay's story
01:06:58 - Explosive economic growth
01:33:34 - Will there be a separate AI economy?
01:47:42 - Can we predictably influence the future?
02:20:22 - Arms race dynamic
02:30:22 - Is superintelligence a real thing?
02:36:19 - Reasons not to expect explosive growth
02:49:34 - Fully automated firms
02:55:17 - Will central planning work?