Скачать или смотреть Recession & Macro-Economic Forecast - February 2021

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Only two of our six indicators are in green territory. We are reflecting that in our slightly lowered probability of another near-term recession to “70%”. We calculated that the actual onset of a recession had already begun over eleven months ago, a fact which was then confirmed by the NBER in June of 2020, and it became officially acknowledged by the Federal Reserve later in the summer with the adoption of NBER’s declaration within Federal Reserve datasets. However, as we just noted above in bold text, the technical end of Recession 2020 has already occurred, late in the 3rd quarter of 2020.

Further modifications to this scenario will depend on what happens in the days and weeks ahead. Reviewing the events leading up to the Great Recession, there was a brief rebound before the serious declines of late 2008, within the context of an unbelievably risky economy, just as we are facing now. Just like then, we have now almost concluded an election which portends a large shift in administrative policies. This time, there is the unique backdrop of a worsening pandemic, and an ongoing highly divisive political manipulation of social and economic expectations. The events of January 6th are clear proof that this divisiveness and manipulation are not trivial matters.

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Advanced Projections has developed 6 key economic indicators that consistently forewarn of oncoming recessions. As our indicators change from green to yellow to red, our recession probability increases until it reaches a critical warning point. Our indicators and updates also alert members of economic restabilization when a recession is ending. Safeguard your business, savings, and investments with our essential monthly recession reports.

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