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35%. That's the cost of borrowing silver in London on October 9th, 2025.
Under normal conditions, that number is 0.3% to 0.5%. Maybe 2% during mild stress.
But 35%? That's not stress. That's panic.
And here's the part that should terrify you—or excite you, depending on which side of the trade you're on:
This has happened before. Twice.
January 1980: Lease rates spiked. Three months later, silver hit $50.
April 2011: Lease rates spiked. Silver surged to $49.
October 2025: Lease rates hit 35%—the highest reading ever recorded. Silver topped $53, breaking the 1980 record.
Most people have never heard of silver lease rates. But this is what professional traders monitor when they want to see a crisis before it hits.
Because lease rates don't lie. They're the cost of borrowing physical metal. When that cost explodes to 35%, it means: Nobody wants to lend their silver.
Here's what 35% actually means:
If you're a bullion bank lending 100,000 oz of silver at 35% for one month, you're charging $181,000 in interest.
That's not a "rental fee." That's an insurance premium. You're saying: "I don't want to lend this metal, but if you pay me $181,000 for one month, I'll take the risk."
And the fact that someone IS paying that rate? That tells you how desperate shorts are for physical metal.
The pattern is clear:
✓ 2008: Lease rates spike → Silver bottoms at $8.40 → Rallies to $49 by 2011
✓ 2016: Lease rates spike → Silver rallies 50%+ over 18 months
✓ 2019: Lease rates spike and invert → Silver doubles over 24 months
✓ 2022: Lease rates hit multi-year highs → Silver: $17.50 → $26.50
✓ October 2024: Lease rates spike to 12.9% → Silver rallies from $30 to $35+ within weeks
✓ October 2025: Lease rates hit 35% → Silver tops $53 → Pulls back → Next leg coming
Lease rate spikes don't signal the top. They signal the beginning.
Sources & References:
Japan Bullion Market Association - Bruce Ikemizu Statement (October 9, 2025)
Kitco Metals - Silver Lease Rate Data
Historical and current silver lease rate tracking showing the October 2025 spike to 35% annualized.
https://www.kitco.com/
BullionVault - Lease Rate Analysis
Detailed explanation of how lease rates function and what extreme readings indicate about physical availability.
https://www.bullionvault.com/
Silver Institute - Historical Price and Supply Context
Data on silver's 1980 and 2011 peaks correlated with lease rate dislocations and physical shortages.
https://www.silverinstitute.org/
MKS PAMP - Nicky Shiels Commentary on 2011 Lease Rates
Head of Metals Strategy confirming "similar dislocations as market participants scrambled for physical metal" during 2011 rally.
https://www.mkspamp.com/
Royal Canadian Mint - 2025 Production Announcement
Official statement on halting additional silver coin production after meeting quotas due to elevated financing costs.
https://www.mint.ca/
U.S. Precious Metals Refiners - Operational Reports
Industry confirmation of paused junk silver purchases in October 2025 due to unsustainable lease cost environment.
Recommended Resources:

📊 MONITOR LEASE RATES YOURSELF

https://www.kitco.com/ (Check 1-month silver lease rates—above 20% = WARNING SIGNAL)
https://www.bullionvault.com/ (Real-time lease rate data + historical charts)
🔍 UNDERSTAND THE INDICATOR

https://www.lbma.org.uk/ (London Bullion Market Association - Industry standard lease rate methodology)

DISCLAIMER:
This video is for educational and informational purposes only. I am not a licensed financial advisor. All opinions shared are my own analysis based on publicly available lease rate data, historical price patterns, and industry reports. The October 2025 lease rate spike to 35% and subsequent Royal Canadian Mint production halt are documented events. However, lease rate predictions and historical pattern comparisons do not guarantee future price movements. Precious metals are volatile and subject to extreme price swings, exchange rule changes, and leveraged liquidations. Please conduct your own due diligence and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. I am not responsible for any financial losses or decisions made based on the information provided in this video.
Now you understand the hidden indicator. But here's the question nobody's asking:
WHY does this pattern keep repeating?
Why does silver constantly run into these crises? Why can't supply keep up? Why is demand so relentless?
In Part 4—the finale of this Silver Investigation Series—I answer the biggest question of all:
Can we actually produce enough silver to power the energy transition?
According to the University of New South Wales: No. Solar panels alone could consume 98% of known silver reserves by 2050.
👉 Subscribe. The final video reveals why the silver shortage isn't a crisis... it's the new normal.
Because Mexico permits, Shanghai arbitrage, and 35% lease rates all point to the same conclusion:
We're running out.