Скачать или смотреть Sea Level Rise Seminar, 2020-10-06: Michael Oppenheimer

Sea Level Rise Seminar, 2020-10-06
Speaker: Michael Oppenheimer
Topic: IPCC’s Special Report: The Oceans and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate - Sea level rise, extreme sea level events, and alternative approaches to characterizing uncertainty

Overview: IPCC’s 2019 special report (SROCC) provided a broad assessment of accelerating change in the oceans and cryosphere driven by the buildup of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. I focus on Chapter 4 which updates observations since the 2013 Fifth Assessment Report and assesses new developments in modeling and projecting ice sheets, sea level rise, and extreme sea level events. For example, the historical centennial high water event (colloquially, the once-a-century flood level) is expected to occur annually at many locations by 2050 regardless of emissions pathway (RCP) followed. While IPCC usually characterizes uncertainty using the model range accompanied by evaluations of confidence, SROCC supplements the standard approach by projecting sea level rise using three methods that are partly or entirely dependent on expert judgment rather than process-based models.