Скачать или смотреть What to Expect From The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting?

Welcome to the Investors Trading Academy event of the week. Each week our staff of analysts and educators tries to provide you a better understanding of a major market event scheduled soon and that have an effect on the global markets. This week’s major focus will be on Mario Draghi and company as they have their rate meeting on Thursday.
The European Central Bank is almost certain to ease policy next week as depressed commodity prices raise the risk of deflation, while a string of data from China will offer clues about the extent of the recent emerging market slowdown.
Growth in most key economies has slowed this year as states such as China to Brazil attempt to rebalance, weighing on global demand and sending deflationary waves around the world through sharply lower oil and metals prices.
Already struggling with ultra-low inflation after years of crisis, the ECB has all but promised policy easing on Thursday but the devil will lie in the details.
A small 10 basis point cut to push its deposit rate deeper into negative territory is a foregone conclusion while some type of adjustment of the bank's 1.5 trillion-euro asset purchase program is also near certain.
But each option on the table comes with side effects and limited functionality as monetary policy is deep in unconventional territory, making exotic decisions less likely given the difficulty of aligning the interest of 19 countries and 25 policymakers.
Recent conversations with investors suggest many are worried that expectations of bold action from the ECB will be disappointed, much as they were last December. We don’t think so. The economic, financial, political backdrop, as well as the risks around it, have changed considerably in the past three months. Bold, effective, action isn’t just desirable; it is increasingly necessary.
Given lower oil prices and the weaker economic outlook, ITA analysts expect the ECB to lower its inflation projection for 2016 from 1.0% to 0.3% or lower and for 2017 from 1.6% to 1.5%.
ITA staff think the ECB will likely decide to include corporate bonds in its asset purchases, but not bank bonds. We expect the ECB to keep some of its powder dry, and reconsider the end of its QE program which currently March 2017 and tapering at a later stage.

By Barry Norman, Investors Trading Academy - ITA